Boeing: Potential under supply in widebody freighters over coming years

According to Boeing’s latest market forecast, a potential undersupply of large widebody freighters could impact the air cargo industry in the latter half of this decade. Darren Hulst, Boeing’s Vice President of Commercial Marketing, highlighted these concerns at the Tiaca Air Cargo Forum, outlining the future of the freighter market.

Growing Demand for Large Widebody Freighters

The demand for large widebody freighters has seen significant growth, especially in long-haul cargo operations. However, on the supply side, the industry is currently navigating a transition phase. New models like the Boeing 777-8F and Airbus A350F are in development, with the Boeing 777F being the only production widebody aircraft available at present. Conversion programs for the 777 have yet to secure their Supplemental Type Certificates (STCs), delaying their market entry.

This supply gap may explain the recent increase in orders for the Boeing 777F as airlines attempt to bridge the shortfall. Hulst noted a spike in orders for the 777F, with 34 confirmed this year alone, indicating a looming undersupply in the large freighter segment.

Transition to New Freighter Models

Hulst pointed out that the transition from the 777F to the 777-8F, alongside Airbus’s entry with the A350F, could result in a temporary supply shortage. The limited availability of new widebody freighters in the medium term suggests potential challenges in meeting demand, particularly for large aircraft.

Balanced Outlook for Narrowbody and Medium Widebody Markets

In contrast, the narrowbody and medium widebody freighter markets appear more balanced. Hulst explained that while narrowbody freighter conversions surged during the pandemic, demand has since tapered off. Airlines and lessors have retained these aircraft for passenger operations, reducing feedstock availability for cargo conversions.

Similarly, the medium widebody segment, including the Boeing 767 and Airbus A330 freighters, remains stable. Boeing’s decision to end 767 freighter production by 2027 reflects a balanced demand outlook for this market.

Shifting Dynamics in Freighter and Bellyhold Capacity

Boeing’s market forecast anticipates a shift favoring dedicated freighters over bellyhold capacity in the coming years. Pre-pandemic, the volume split was roughly 50-50 between freighters and bellyhold cargo. However, Boeing now projects that freighters will carry 55% of air cargo volumes, driven partly by a slower recovery in passenger flights between major markets like China and the US.

Expansion of the Global Freighter Fleet

Looking ahead, Boeing predicts significant growth in the global freighter fleet. By 2043, the all-cargo fleet is expected to expand to 3,900 aircraft, a 66% increase from 2,340 in 2023. This includes 1,005 new production freighters and 1,840 passenger-to-freighter (P2F) conversions. Nearly half of these deliveries will replace aging aircraft, with new models offering improved efficiency and reliability.

Hulst noted that while the fleet size may not grow as much as some expect, enhanced aircraft productivity and utilization will boost overall market capacity. The demand surge in high-growth regions, especially in Asia, is likely to drive the near doubling of the large widebody freighter fleet.

Conclusion

Boeing’s latest projections underscore the potential supply challenges facing the large widebody freighter market in the coming years. The transition to new aircraft models, coupled with evolving market dynamics, is likely to shape the air cargo industry’s landscape well into the next decade.

As airlines prepare for these changes, the focus will be on balancing supply with demand, ensuring the industry can meet the growing needs of global trade and e-commerce.

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